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CASE FILE · REPLAY-LEGACY-BOTHSIDES-UP-LEG
HISTORICAL REPLAYVERIFIED · ADAPTED8h capture · 33 windows · 6,312 events
BREAKEVEN
NET +$0.32 AFTER FEES · 24 TRADES · NO % BASIS
Verified and reproducible — a fee-dominated breakeven. The fills were real; the strategy's gross edge was almost entirely the fee.
PM-5M-BOTHSIDES-SCALP (UP-LEG, ADAPTED) — RECOVERED FROM A LEGACY BACKTEST
POLYMARKET BTC 15M UP/DOWN (UP-TOKEN LEG)
PROOFLINE
HISTORICAL REPLAY
RECORD SEALED
LEGACY BOT VERIFIED24 / 24 DEPTH-VERIFIEDFEES $3.26 VS $3.58 GROSSREPLAY BYTE-IDENTICAL
WHAT HAPPENED?
One of the operator's old trading bots (buy the cheap side, take profit at 56¢, else hold to the result) was turned into exact rules and replayed on real recorded market data. 24 trades all filled against real available depth, 13 held to a real final result, none left open. The strategy made $3.58 gross — but paid $3.26 in fees, netting $0.32. The edge was the fees, not the strategy.
WHAT WAS TESTED?
A legacy bot's rules, run through Proofline for the first time: Polymarket BTC 15m up/down (up-token leg) · 8h capture · 33 windows · 6,312 events.
WHY TRUST IT?
Every one of the 24 fills was checked against the recorded order-book depth at the quoted price, fees were applied per trade, final results came from the venue, and rerunning the sealed record produces the exact same report.
WHAT IS STILL UNKNOWN?
This does not mean the strategy works. It is a fee-dominated breakeven over 24 trades, and it covers only the up-side leg of a two-sided 5-minute strategy, adapted to 15-minute data — see the assumptions.
EVIDENCE · EXPAND TO INSPECT
PLAIN STORY FIRST · PROOF UNDERNEATH
Verbatim from the sealed record. The technical proof below lists the artifacts behind it.
How many times the rules fired during the tested period.
Every simulated trade was checked against the order book's displayed availability at that moment. “Partly” means the book showed less than the strategy wanted, so only the displayed amount filled.
Verbatim from the sealed record. The technical proof below lists the artifacts behind it.
Verbatim from the sealed record. The technical proof below lists the artifacts behind it.
Positions still awaiting a final result when the record ended. Anything pending stays pending; results after the recording stopped are never filled in.
The sealed spec re-run on the same DatasetVersion produces a byte-identical report_hash (1a9b17c1…) across independent runs; price-only and depth-aware fill models agree (all 24 fills depth-verified), so there is no price-only inflation.
  • Strategy rules recovered from source
  • Whether trades could go through
  • Fees
  • Final market results
  • Profit/loss
  • Reproducibility
Events replayed6,312
Intents24
Fills35 (24 buys + 11 take-profit sells)
depth_verified24
depth_partial / depth_unverified0 / 0
Rejected0
Settlements applied32
Positions closed at settlement13
Open positions at end0
  • This verifies an ADAPTED reading of the imported bot, not the bot verbatim: the up-token leg only, on 15-minute data instead of 5-minute, with the source's 60-second fill window dropped because the settling dataset carries no secs_elapsed. Each adaptation is a declared assumption in the spec.
  • No percentage return is stated: the spec sizes a fixed $1.80 per trade with no declared capital basis, so a percentage would be invented.
  • The imported strategy 'pm-5m-bothsides-scalp' remains Tested — evidence partial, not blanket Verified: its down-token leg and native-5m behavior are still untested.
TECHNICAL PROOF · FOR THOSE WHO WANT IT
NEVER SHOWN BEFORE THE STORY
FINGERPRINTS (HASHES)
SEMANTIC SPEC FINGERPRINT
b3610db58e00781971b13c03d5131ac125b621d83190a5d574a1d604abee0497
SPEC HASH
e6bae7a1f9984277ac268c3eaa15e659859ba535408a957110f5a37a1536d59d
REPORT (DEPTH-AWARE V0.1)
1a9b17c11f1bfb24a13c2ce44854df152996e1ddeec5caafdd98e3f1f7a8c1ee
LEDGER CHAIN
3613b897f03532231b424fe283fd546d278ecf6c6cc70296bb3ab888ab249202
DATASETVERSION (NORMALIZED)
414fa02fde3293587c25aec7c8804fb4ffd2be1401a0b2849719ab859a0727cb
REPRODUCIBILITY
The sealed spec re-run on the same DatasetVersion produces a byte-identical report_hash (1a9b17c1…) across independent runs; price-only and depth-aware fill models agree (all 24 fills depth-verified), so there is no price-only inflation.
EVIDENCE FILES · PROOFLINE REPOSITORY
compiler-benchmark/legacy/bothsides-up-leg/spec.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/legacy/bothsides-up-leg/report_depth.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/legacy/bothsides-up-leg/comparison.jsonSEALED
compiler-benchmark/legacy/bothsides-up-leg/truth_report.htmlSEALED
Written by the Proofline engine; the site only displays them. See the method for how a record is reproduced.
ENGINE RECORD
REPLAYREPLAY ONLYLEGACY IMPORTP&L: COMPUTABLEBYTE-REPRODUCIBLE
Trust levelREPLAY ONLY
Run statusCOMPLETED
P&L statusCOMPUTABLE
P&L DETAIL
Net P&L+$0.32
Realized (gross)+$3.58
Fees$3.26
Adapted spec: up (YES) token leg only, 5m→15m timeframe, 60-second fill gate dropped (no secs_elapsed in the settling dataset), fixed $1.80 sizing. Four disclosed assumptions; entry direction is source-derived. Semantic hash b3610db5….
VERIFIED UNDER THE DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS SHOWN. NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
BUILDERRECORDSEVIDENCEWATCHALERTS